What makes Latin America such an attractive place for investment for ? And not just Latin America, this applies to other emerging markets as well: Southeast Asia , Eastern Europe, parts of Africa . The opportunity is global.

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Stablecoins as the New Rails

We’re entering an era where stablecoins function less like crypto tokens and more like automated clearing rails for global commerce. The future isn’t about buying coffee with USDC or USDT (Tether)… it’s about real-time payroll, T+0 settlements, and composable payments with no intermediaries.

Stablecoins like USDC and protocols like Ethereum are may be the groundwork for this shift. BMNR (Bitmine) is steadily accumulating Ethereum, aligned with Tom Lee’s conviction that will serve as the foundational settlement layer for global stablecoin adoption. The company sees Ethereum not just as a smart contract platform, but as the financial internet backbone… ideal for bridging TradFi with compliant, programmable money.

Other stablecoin players like , Stably, and Mountain Protocol are similarly targeting enterprise-level solutions, not retail speculation. The endgame? Embedded, invisible infrastructure that saves time and money.

Companies already moving:

• $PYPL: expanding its stablecoin integrations

• $XYZ: deploying on-chain invoice automation

• $SOFI: primed to integrate stablecoin-backed payroll and savings

This is the fiber optic layer of finance… fast, frictionless, programmable.

SoFi and Paychex: A Strategic Stack Play

Let’s look into $SOFI’s recent move with Paychex. It may look like a simple partnership, but it’s a sneaky infrastructure play.

Paychex brings:

• Payroll

• Worker’s comp

• SMB reach across millions of businesses

SoFi brings:

• Galileo (API-based banking)

• Embedded 401(k), savings, and lending

• Potential integration of real-time stablecoin settlements

Together, they could embed financial automation where it matters most: inside the systems that cut checks and manage benefits. This is how SoFi moves beyond flashy fintech and into embedded B2B banking… without needing to own the last mile.

Toast and the Death of Interchange

is one of the most overlooked players in the merchant finance revolution. They’re not just offering POS systems… they’re creating a closed-loop payments ecosystem inside restaurants.

With full control over:

• Hardware

• Software

• Payment processing

• Financial services

Toast is perfectly positioned to adopt stablecoin rails for merchant settlement. Imagine a future where stablecoins replace $VISA and ACH entirely… eliminating 2-3% fees, reducing chargeback risk, and giving merchants instant access to capital.

Once legislation or enterprise demand normalizes stablecoin use? Toast can flip the switch.

The Rise of Fintech 2.0 Infrastructure

We’ve graduated from slick UIs and “neobank” branding. Fintech 2.0 is infrastructure-first. And we’re watching it take shape in real time.

What’s being built:

• Stablecoin-based clearing layers (Circle)

• Embedded finance APIs (Galileo, Synapse, Modern Treasury)

• AI and data-driven underwriting (, $SOFI, possibly in the future)

The new stack is forming where the boring stuff lives… in compliance layers, automated treasury ops, smart contracts for B2B payments. That’s where the margin is. That’s where the moat will be.

Final Thoughts

The future of finance won’t look like another flashy app.
It’ll look like programmable money moving in milliseconds.
And no one will even notice… because it’ll be embedded into everything.

Fintech 2.0 is here… and it’s running on stablecoins.

That said… maybe we’re still early in this part of the cycle.
The market has likely already priced in the assumption that “digital finance rails” are inevitable.
Now it’s waiting for meaningful proof. Real traction, real margin, real product-market fit.

April lows rattled investor confidence, but we’ve steadily climbed back… briefly accelerating in early June before hitting a ceiling. Now? We're chopping sideways, just under all-time highs.

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Just a few weeks ago, many thought the market had topped… but clearly, it hadn’t. This is the rhythm of a bull market… bulls climb the wall of worry. They don't thrive on universal optimism. In fact, if everyone were bullish, there’d be no one left to buy. Bull markets need skepticism, they need reasons to sell. That constant churn of uncertainty keeps the market alive and moving higher. When the reasons to sell remain static, uncertainty fades… and ironically, that can stall a rally. Of course, a pullback will come eventually, but I don’t think it’ll be dramatic. The market has proven over and over that every dip gets bought with relentless energy.

Give Me an Example, Furu…

Take last Thursday as an example, the market fell over 1%, $TSLA was getting hammered, and over the weekend I saw plenty of people throw in the towel on their Tesla positions. They thought it was the end of the Elon Musk story.

But that bearish narrative got squashed almost immediately. That said, I wouldn’t say the bear case is dead. Tesla's auto sales are expected to decline, and free cash flow margins are under pressure. But Tesla isn’t just an auto company. It’s a bet on the future… on autonomy, robotics through Optimus, and even space travel. The real investment thesis is about removing humans from repetitive tasks and pushing civilization forward into more complex, value-driven roles.

What Does This Mean for People?

If you're in Tesla thinking it'll deliver on all of this by June 28, or even in the next five to ten years, you're playing the wrong game. $TSLA is a trader’s stock, a momentum play. If you’re in it for the long haul, daily headlines and price swings mean nothing. You’re betting on a future that’s not only relevant, but inevitable. Personally, I added to my Tesla position under $300. I even bought LEAPS when the sentiment hit rock bottom, because people lost sight of the bigger picture.

And if the market stays bullish, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla pushes back to $500. That would obviously be great for my LEAPS, but even if it doesn’t happen, the long-term vision remains intact. You can't stop autonomy, you can't stop robotics, you can't stop the expansion of humanity beyond Earth. This future is coming… with or without AI.

So at the End of the Day…?

Within five to ten years, the S&P has a high probability of trading much higher than it is today. If it isn’t, then something will have gone seriously wrong. But if technology continues to grow exponentially, so will the market. And people need to understand that today's market is not the market of 20 or 30 years ago. Everything moves faster. Information is instant. This isn’t the 1980s where you'd wait hours, or even days, for news to trickle in. In 2025, a tweet can spread a market-moving headline in seconds. That speed changes everything. It also means that even 20% drawdowns can get erased rapidly. Sentiment shifts on a dime. And while that can also mean deeper drawdowns are possible, the broader direction follows technological momentum.

The Main Portfolio

You can follow the Hidden Edge Main Portfolio on SavvyTrader HERE.

So yes, I remain bullish. My portfolio has surged back to near all-time highs, not just from luck, but because I capitalized on strength. I watched which tickers held up on red days. I used leverage where I saw asymmetric upside. $HOOD was one of the names that helped bring my portfolio above February highs. $PLTR, too, especially when I was buying calls in the $100-115 range.

Small Cap Portfolio

Even small caps like $NVTS Navitas and $EOSE Eos added fuel to the fire. And $NBIS Nebius? That one’s been a massive winner over the past couple of months, shooting well beyond my expectations in a short time.

These small and speculative holdings are all in the Hidden Edge Small Cap Portfolio. You can follow that here!

But let me issue a word of caution. Not because I think we’re about to enter a bear market, but because short-dated, leveraged call plays carry real risk. If we go sideways for a few weeks, or pull back even 1-2%, it could wreck those positions. So stay sharp, protect yourself. That said, my long-term portfolio remains intact, and we’re going to keep chugging along. Thanks for reading, and stay smart out there.

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Well, what I'm going to do is go over these earnings. It might get a little technical, both in terms of fundamentals and technicals as far as the company goes. But I’m pretty intimate with the stock, per se. I’ve used the application for many, many years, nearly a decade now, and I haven’t found an code repository application quite as powerful and useful as GitLab.

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What’s happening right now is classic. People are trying to out-think the cycle. But this market, this economy… it’s been grinding higher despite every headline screaming otherwise. Unemployment isn’t spiraling up. GDP hasn’t collapsed. Jobless claims might wiggle, but they’re not breaking. If you’re hoping for a crash, it’s like watching paint dry and praying for a thunderstorm.

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From Euphoria to Panic, Back to Euphoria?

Let’s rewind to earlier this year. January into February, positioning was heavy and sentiment was bullish. Hedge funds, asset managers, retail… all were leaning in. Futures positioning was stretched, and the AI trade had sentiment indicators screaming optimism. Surveys like the AAII and CNN Fear & Greed Index were firmly in the "greed" zone. Even the NAAIM exposure index, which tracks fund manager equity exposure, was elevated.

Then came the pullback. The S&P 500 dropped over 20% intraday, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 went into bear market territory. Analysts slashed price targets. Mega caps were downgraded. And suddenly, everyone flipped bearish. Positioning got defensive. Rates spiked, gold rallied, and the dollar wobbled. Macro panic set in.

The Trump Pivot and Repricing Risk

Then something changed. April 9 became a pivotal moment. On the same day retaliation tariffs were in effect, Trump announced a 90-day pause on retaliation tariffs for every country except China. The market exploded higher. Since then, we've seen a slow, grinding rally… one that’s left many investors flat-footed.

Everyone kept waiting for a retest of April lows, but it never came. Now the narrative is "we’ll get a correction... eventually." Maybe now. Maybe after another 10% move higher. The truth? Nobody knows. Meanwhile, U.S. indices are catching up to global peers, and risk appetite is back. Even as the Magnificent 7 lag slightly, they still drift higher.

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Sentiment Reset, But Not Frothy

Despite the rally, we’re not in an overly bullish environment. Fund manager positioning is near average. Some S&P targets have been revised higher, but plenty remain conservative. On social media, sentiment is still split. But as always, price action is the ultimate sentiment shifter. As markets move up, people start to believe again.

And let’s not forget the VIX. It’s sitting at 17 now. Just six weeks ago, it was over 50. That’s a signal. Historically, a VIX at 50 has a 100% win rate on forward 1-Year S&P returns. You don’t sell into that. You buy. That’s a setup you act on.

When Everyone’s Cautious, Who’s Left to Sell?

The most ironic thing about bearish positioning? It actually becomes a support level. When everyone is defensive, there’s nobody left to capitulate. Pullbacks get bought because the weak hands already left. So the market grinds higher… not because everything is perfect, but because selling pressure has dried up.

Trying to time the top is a losing game. As one great quote puts it, “It is usually a much simpler matter to forecast a bull market than to call the turn at its end.” Recession forecasting is hard. If top economists with million-dollar models can’t do it, what makes you think you can?

Algos Have Already Priced It In

Algorithms dominate price action. By the time you see a news headline, it’s already reflected in the tape. AI models ingest the data and front-run the reaction. The moment your favorite Twitter account posts the news, it’s already old.

So what’s left for retail? Probability and positioning. Long-term investing works because it ignores noise. But even traders can take advantage of repeatable setups. When we broke the 200-day moving average, retested it, and launched? That was a textbook trade. And right now, many charts are flashing textbook cup-and-handle breakouts. You can read on my article covering this setup.

Long-Term View With Tactical Adjustments

I’m not here saying go all-in. I’m saying play the probabilities. If your setup’s there, take the trade with stops. If you’re investing, ignore the daily drama unless the fundamentals change. Warren Buffett sells too… he trims Apple regularly. And that’s fine. Everyone’s got their own time horizon and risk profile.

Bottom line? We’re likely in a bull market. Not everything will go up, but enough will. Dips get bought. Pullbacks feel shallow. The path of least resistance is higher... until it isn’t. But you won’t see the top coming. So don’t waste energy trying to.

$CRWD CrowdStrike just dropped 8–10% after earnings, only to bounce right back. That’s what happens in bull markets. Reactions fade, buyers step in, and stocks drift higher.

Stay on the right side of the trade. Respect the trend. Watch the June macro headlines, but don’t overreact.

Trade safe, and have a strong rest of the week.

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Let’s get into the numbers first. But before we do, full disclosure:

$CRWD is roughly 3% of my portfolio with an adjusted cost basis of <$150 per share. This is calculated against entries and exits for trading (non-core) positions.

You can see my entire portfolio and real time trades on SavvyTrader. Follow the link Hidden Edge Main Portfolio.

The Core Metrics

CrowdStrike reported:

• Revenue: $1.103B (Est. $1.105B) [+19.8% YoY]

• EPS: $0.73 (Est. $0.67)

• Free Cash Flow: $279M

• ARR: $4.44B [+22% YoY]

• Adj. Operating Margins: 18.2%

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The Inline Results

• Revenue: $1.895B, up 63.3% YoY and a beat

• EPS: $0.62 adjusted, above the $0.61 estimate

• Operating Margin: 34.2% adjusted, roughly in line

• Gross Margin: Missed by ~20bps, not a major concern

• Q2 Revenue Guide: ~$2B, signaling a slowdown to 57% YoY growth

Here’s the whiteboard from ConsensusMedia.

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At the time, SentinelOne was trading at a discount, and the market hadn’t fully priced in possible margin expansion. The outage at CrowdStrike affected nearly 50% of the world’s Windows systems and brought into question whether centralizing all endpoint security with one provider was too risky. That opened a potential window for SentinelOne to step in and win new business.

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You can catch that LIVE discussion on the Hidden Edge Pod YouTube Channel below! We regularly release deep dives and podcasts. Be sure to subscribe!

What makes this market so unique is that it doesn’t rely on land, physical buildings, or the overheads tied to constructing towers around the globe. Instead, the infrastructure here involves launching satellites and building a logistics platform in space… a network that can be scaled globally, directly serving consumers, businesses, and governments. This is an opportunity in the infrastructure world, and one company that's positioning itself to lead this shift is $RKLB Rocket Lab.

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Rocket Lab: The End-to-End Space Platform

Rocket Lab is an incredibly compelling player in this space, not only because it provides payload launches through its Electron and Neutron rockets, but also because it's creating an end-to-end space platform. With launch facilities in New Zealand and Virginia, Rocket Lab is expanding its capabilities to launch into markets across the world, including the European Union. What makes them particularly interesting is their acquisition of Mynaric, a company that specializes in satellite connectivity using laser beams.

This move puts Rocket Lab in direct competition with $ASTS AST SpaceMobile and $TSLA Starlink, and indicates that the company might soon tap into the mobile connectivity sector… a critical area for the future of satellite infrastructure.

Beyond just launching payloads into space, Rocket Lab’s vision is to develop a scalable, reliable infrastructure in orbit. This is about more than just bringing payloads to space; it’s about creating a logistical platform that can sustain billions of data points and communication between satellites, businesses, and consumers. This vision of space as an infrastructure platform is becoming a reality.

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In addition to a unique business, Rocket Lab had a strong Q1 FY2025 with GAAP Gross Margins at 27.3%. Wide margin expansion over last few year and, more impressively, way ahead of what we typically see from $LMT Lockheed Martin (10.2%) and $RTX Raytheon (19.5%).

That’s wild considering how capital-heavy this industry is. The edge comes from Rocket Lab’s vertical integration and dual-engine revenue model, launches and space systems… which give it way more margin flexibility than traditional defense contractors. It’s lean, scrappy, and clearly playing a different game than the legacy primes.

The Cost Revolution in Space Launches

Historically, sending payloads to space was prohibitively expensive… around $52,000 per kilogram in the 1980s. However, the cost of launching payloads has dramatically decreased to about $200 per kilogram estimated this year, according to recent data.

This significant drop in pricing is expected to drive a massive increase in the number of launches, making space more accessible than ever before. The infrastructure we see in space will enable a new kind of connectivity… one that doesn’t rely on terrestrial towers or land leases. Instead, companies can launch satellites into LEO, interconnect them, and provide direct communication with businesses, mobile network operators, or consumers globally.

This shift has major implications for internet access, particularly for people in regions with inconsistent or limited internet coverage. By deploying satellites in orbit, companies can provide internet access to consumers who previously couldn't be reached by traditional infrastructure. This opens up enormous opportunities for satellite-based internet, with companies like AST Space Mobile playing a key role in connecting billions of underserved people.

AST Space Mobile: Connecting the World

AST Space Mobile is at the forefront of this transformation. Already partnered with major global mobile network operators like Vodafone, Verizon, and AT&T, the company is building a satellite-based mobile connectivity network.

AST Space Mobile's technology will enable direct communication between satellites and mobile devices, eliminating the need for ground-based infrastructure. This technology is already being applied to government contracts, such as the Golden Dome project… an initiative designed to expand secure communications networks.

The integration of AST’s technology into government projects adds a layer of revenue stability that many space companies are participating in. The increasing importance of secure, reliable communication networks, both for consumers and government entities, ensures that AST Space Mobile has a valuable and growing market to tap into.

Starlink: The SpaceX Giant

While Rocket Lab and AST Space Mobile are rapidly growing, Starlink (part of SpaceX) is the leader in space-based internet connectivity and launch platforms. SpaceX has launched countless payloads into orbit, often with weekly missions. The Falcon 9 rockets continue to be the backbone of the company's operations, and the Starlink project, which aims to provide global broadband service, is already delivering on its promises.

SpaceX is a massive force in the space industry, and although retail investors can’t directly invest in SpaceX, $TSLA Tesla offers a proxy for exposure. Elon Musk’s vision for SpaceX is intertwined with the future of the company, and as his focus on space intensifies, it’s likely that Tesla’s valuation will continue to benefit from the underlying technological advancements driven by SpaceX.

The Risks: Is Space Infrastructure Viable?

As with any emerging industry, there are risks. We are still in the early stages of space infrastructure development, and there’s a chance that some of these projects may not reach fruition. However, the asymmetric opportunity presented by the space economy is worth considering. The potential returns on investment in space-related infrastructure could far outweigh the risks. With the dramatic reduction in launch costs and the increasing demand for global connectivity, the space economy is poised to expand rapidly over the next decade.

My Investment Thesis

Given the vast potential of space infrastructure and satellite-based communication, I still think AST Space Mobile is an attractive opportunity at $25, which is below my cost basis. The company is still in its early stages, but it has solid partnerships and a unique technology that could give it a significant advantage over competitors. The government contracts, such as the Golden Dome project, can offer a steady revenue stream that should help the company scale.

In comparison, Rocket Lab is a more mature company with recurring revenue on its balance sheet and a more established path toward profitability. As a result, Rocket Lab presents less risk but also doesn’t offer the same runway for growth that AST Space Mobile does. While Rocket Lab’s position in the satellite launch market is strong, AST Space Mobile’s mobile connectivity technology could prove to be a key differentiator in the space industry.

Finally, for retail investors looking to gain exposure to SpaceX, Tesla remains the only viable option. While it’s not directly linked to the satellite or space infrastructure markets, Tesla’s growth is closely tied to Musk’s vision for SpaceX, and there’s potential for synergies to drive both companies forward.

Conclusion

The space economy is a frontier that’s just beginning to be tapped. Companies like Rocket Lab, AST Space Mobile, and Starlink are leading the charge in building a new infrastructure in space… one that could fundamentally change how we think about connectivity, communication, and the broader internet ecosystem. While there are risks in the early stages of this market, the opportunity to invest in space infrastructure offers a unique chance to get in on the ground floor of a multi-trillion dollar industry.

I think it does.

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What made it fascinating wasn’t just the drawdown itself, but how it happened… an entire week of choppy, indecisive price action that eventually fell off a cliff after the 20Y U.S. Treasury auction.

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That auction matters more than most people realize. Bonds are one of the largest and most predictive markets in the world. When you see yields spike… like we did with the 20-year trading above 5%… it’s the market’s way of saying it expects federal interest rates to remain elevated for decades. Of course, the real answer is more nuanced. A lot of factors go into those yields. But broadly speaking, rising yields suggest market participants are growing less confident in the U.S. economy's long-term stability, especially its ability to service debt.

That’s where things get dicey. GDP came in negative last quarter, and it might be negative again. Meanwhile, there’s some talk of tariffs making a comeback, which historically has impacted trade behavior… especially when inventories are already elevated.

But if those tariffs don't materialize in a meaningful way, we may see things normalize sooner than expected. The front-loading phase might be over. And that means a smoother, less panicked return of imports… which also means maybe, just maybe, the bond market is overdoing it.

The stock market has definitely felt the heat. The S&P 500 has pulled back roughly 2.5% from its highs. We briefly flipped negative on the year again. VIX is back above 22, which is not ideal, but also not a total panic. We also had a few important earnings reports this week that added more color to the macro backdrop… particularly from the software side.

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First up was Palo Alto Networks. The company is still the clear leader in cybersecurity, and it continues to grow its RPO impressively year over year. But the market didn’t love what it saw… margins contracted, and earnings showed signs of slowing. $PANW was trading near all-time highs after a big April rally, so this might’ve been just a bit of healthy profit-taking. Still, the long-term theme for the company is that they are the leader in cybersecurity as a platform, and they continue to show remarkable RPO growth.

$SNOW told a different story. Sentiment has been brutal around this name for the past year. It rallied off its COVID lows, but it’s still miles away from its all-time highs… and even from the 2024 levels it saw before Frank Slootman stepped down. That said, this quarter was strong. Revenue grew 26% YoY. They beat estimates and raised guidance. And importantly, they’ve managed to cut stock-based compensation from 43% of revenue down to 36%. Stock comp grew just 14% YoY while revenue grew 26%, meaning they’re moving toward healthier operating leverage. They’re still not profitable on a GAAP basis, but free cash flow is strong, and adjusted margins are improving.

What’s clear is that secular trends… especially AI… are moving forward no matter what’s happening with bonds, tariffs, or GDP prints. Companies are investing in efficiency, and Snowflake is a good example of that. If the market pulls back more, I see it as an opportunity… but I’m also not sure what the bears are waiting for.

Let’s rewind for a second. Just a month ago, the market was down nearly 20% from all-time highs. Some names were cut in half. Sentiment was trash. Analysts were slashing price targets across megacaps. Everyone was calling for more pain. That was your correction. And now, just weeks later, we’re back within 5% of all-time highs… yet the doomers still want another crash.

What exactly do they want? Do they want a new financial crisis just because they missed the bottom? Because rooting for a collapse isn’t just about buying cheaper stocks… it’s also rooting for job losses, economic pain, and social instability. It’s like hoping for your neighbor’s house to burn down because you missed the homebuyer’s tax credit.

If you're thinking long term… 10, 20, 30 years… then current prices still make sense. The long-term trajectory of American innovation, productivity, and corporate earnings has not changed. AI is still coming. Efficiency is still compounding. Earnings are still growing. And if you're investing globally, you still want the U.S. to succeed, because it powers a huge chunk of global GDP.

So think about your timeframe. Are you investing for the next 30 days or the next 30 years? If it's the latter, block out the noise, hold strong, and buy the dip if it aligns with your thesis.

Because in the end, rooting for disaster rarely works out… for your wallet or for the world.

Thanks for reading.

Yesterday, felt like a classic market bull trap.

The 20-Year Auction Reaction

We came in hot. $QQQ was bouncing from the open to 522, just a few points shy of all-time highs. $SPY wasn’t far behind. After a near +23% run off the April lows, the tape had that melt-up energy. Everyone was nodding. People were bullish again. Even I was leaning in.

Then 1PM hit.

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First, every dip has been relentlessly bought, and that’s been going on for weeks now. Second, after hours, the market got hit with a headline that led to a sharp 1% sell-off in just a couple of hours, wiping out all the intraday gains.

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So, what was the news?

The Downgrade That Shocked No One

Moody’s downgraded U.S. debt from AAA to AA1, putting it in line with where S&P and Fitch already had the U.S. rated. That means all three major credit agencies now have the U.S. one notch below perfect, at AA+.

Moody’s cited tariff escalation and broader fiscal concerns, rising debt, interest payments, long-term deficits. They still acknowledged the U.S. can pay its bills, but uncertainty has grown.

Naturally, the downgrade triggered a knee-jerk reaction. Fear started circulating again. People brought up 2011 when S&P’s downgrade led to a market slide, or 2023 when Fitch’s downgrade came during a broader correction.

But I think this time is different, and here’s why...

2011 Was Structural, Not Sentimental

Back in 2011, the S&P downgrade caused real issues. Many contracts, especially for collateral and fund mandates, required AAA-rated debt. Once the downgrade hit, those rules were technically violated.

That caused a forced sell-off. There was no framework in place to deal with a downgrade, so the system had to adjust on the fly.

Eventually, the rules did adjust. Instead of requiring a AAA rating, contracts were rewritten to accept U.S. government securities, regardless of the specific agency rating. The market adapted.

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The U.S. didn’t become riskier... the paperwork just needed to catch up.

2023 Was Different Too

When Fitch downgraded the U.S. in 2023, markets initially dropped about 1% to 1.5% after hours. But if you looked closely, that wasn’t because of the downgrade alone.

There were multiple factors at play... fears of a recession, profit-taking after a strong rally, stretched valuations. The downgrade may have been the headline, but it wasn’t the reason.

It was normal market rotation, not panic about creditworthiness.

2025: Moody’s Is Just Catching Up

Now in 2025, Moody’s is simply the last one to show up. This wasn’t unexpected. It made headlines, but it didn’t change anything.

The rules have already been updated to allow for AA+ ratings. Split ratings are now the norm. Nothing really changes in practice.

Yes, the market dropped 1% after hours... but by the weekend, it had already bounced back and retraced half the move. That tells me this isn’t about credit risk. This is about headlines and reflexive selling.

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If there’s more downside, it won’t be because of Moody’s. It’ll be because of yields, bond volatility, or broader macro noise.

The Bigger Picture

Let’s zoom out.

We just came off one of the fastest bear markets since COVID. And it wasn’t driven by collapsing fundamentals, it was front-running fear over tariffs that didn’t end up being as bad as advertised.

The rebound since has erased most of that fear.

So did this downgrade introduce fresh uncertainty? Maybe a little. Bonds dipped, sure, but they found support near Thursday’s lows. If yields spike again, we could see more pressure... but if they stabilize, where’s the risk?

Don’t Let the Fear Win

If you think a second wave of pain is coming solely because of this downgrade, you’re not trading on new information... you’re reacting to fear.

A 1% drop after a 25% rally isn’t a trend-changer. It’s noise.

Since the April lows, bears have been calling for another leg down. If you listened to them, you missed a monster rally. So ask yourself... are you going to listen again? Are you going to sell everything now because of a downgrade that was expected for months?

I’m not.

At most, I might trim or rotate a few positions to manage risk. But I’m staying invested. Not because I know what’s coming next, none of us do, but because I believe this downgrade isn’t the top.

Probability Over Emotion

We make decisions based on probability, not panic.

If you’re selling now, ask yourself... are you trading facts or trading headlines?

A 1% dip on stale news isn’t a signal. It’s noise.

So no, I’m not going all cash. I’m not flipping bearish on a downgrade that’s already priced in. If I’m wrong, so be it... I’ll adjust.

But I’d rather stay rational than reactive.

Let’s keep watching.

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1. Is Google Search really starting to decline?

2. And if so… what does that mean for the stock?

I’ve done a lot of digging, watched the signals, and this week I made a move in my portfolio that reflects where I think things are headed.

But before we get to that, let’s unpack what’s changing under the surface.

The State of Google Search: Not Dead, But Evolving Fast

Let’s get one thing out of the way, Google Search isn’t going away. But that doesn’t mean nothing’s changed.

Apple executive Eddy Cue recently testified that Safari searches on iPhones have declined for the first time in years. That’s a significant development, especially considering Google pays Apple billions to remain the default search engine.

Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince highlighted a similar concern, stating, “AI is going to fundamentally change the business model of the web. The business model of the web for the last 15 years has been search. Search drives everything that happens online.” He noted that today, “75 percent of the queries that get put into Google get answered without you leaving Google.” This shift means users no longer need to visit the original website, impacting content creators who rely on traffic for revenue.

Prince further emphasized the disparity in value exchange, saying, “Ten years ago… for every two pages of a website that Google scraped, they would send you one visitor. That was the trade. Now, it takes six pages scraped to get one visitor.” He also pointed out that AI tools exacerbate this issue, with OpenAI and Anthropic scraping vast amounts of content with minimal return to the original creators.

Reddit CEO Steve Huffman also addressed changes in search behavior, noting that the site experienced “volatility” in traffic due to Google’s algorithm changes. He mentioned that while Reddit saw increased traffic from users appending “Reddit” to their searches, the platform is still navigating the challenges posed by shifts in search dynamics.

Google Is Still Strong, But It’s Not Untouchable

This isn’t about whether Google is a bad company. It’s about understanding whether it still earns its spot in a modern, concentrated portfolio.

Here’s what we know:

• Operating Margin: 33.9%

• Operating Income: 20.2% YoY

• Revenue: 12% YoY

• Google Cloud: 28.1% YoY

Those are strong numbers… no question. But again, the market doesn’t reward what you were, it rewards what you’re becoming. And even great companies can become opportunity costs, especially in an AI cycle that’s moving this fast.

So… What Comes Next?

That’s the real question. If Google’s core search model is being challenged at the edges, and if AI-native platforms are growing their slice of attention, what do we prioritize next?

In my case, I compared two companies. One that’s arguably the most embedded into our digital behavior, and another that’s building its own compute stack, monetizing attention, and scaling faster than anyone expected.

One of them is seeing revenue, operating income, and margins expand simultaneously.

One of them rebounded sharply from the April lows, while the other is still lagging.

I made a portfolio move based on that. And while I won’t spoil it here, you can see what I did and why over on my SavvyTrader profile.

This Isn’t Just About Google

It’s about being early to recognize change. Not necessarily to predict it, but to respond to it before the narrative catches up.

I’m not in the game to hold everything forever. I’m here to outperform. And that means asking hard questions, even about companies we assume are untouchable.

If this resonated with you, follow me on SavvyTrader for full portfolio insights, live moves, and my ongoing thinking behind each name.

So far YTD, my portfolio is +10.43% while the S&P500 is -0.53%. That is nearly a 11% outperformance!

I am currently offering a 50% discount for 3 months. You can use the code below or the link. Feel free to ask me any questions!

Promo Code: summer15only

SavvyTrader: Hidden Edge Main Portfolio

Are we already in a recession or not?

I think so.

We just received the Q1 2025 GDP print, the first contraction since 2022, at -0.3% QoQ.

This decline was largely due to the frontloading of inventory ahead of the blanket tariffs. But there’s more coming next week: a massive 35% drop in container imports to the Port of Los Angeles.

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That’s a big deal.

The Port of LA is the largest in the U.S., receiving the bulk of containers from China. This means inventories are already stockpiled… and any new imports will come in at higher costs, which get passed on to consumers.

Translation?

Prices on $AMZN and elsewhere are about to get more expensive, especially for anything manufactured or shipped from China.

Higher prices = sticky inflation.

And with wage growth slowing well below the Fed Funds Rate, Americans will be squeezed… paying more with less money. More out, less in.

Can the Fed step in? Nope.

Friday’s ADP jobs data surprised to the upside, which I believe is heavily skewed, and unemployment remains low. That leaves the Fed with its hands tied.

There’s only one man who can stop this from spiraling…

Donald J. Trump.

If he doesn’t back off the tariff war with China, we’re looking at a manufactured recession by summer 2025.

So how do we protect our capital in all this chaos?

Well, I’ve weathered the fastest stock market drop in decades. The S&P 500 is down -3.3% YTD, but my portfolio? Up +2.65%.

What’s working? Cybersecurity and fintech.

These sectors are least exposed to tariffs… and I’ve been buying them aggressively during this historic drop. I will add more to this on upcoming articles this week.

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This morning, during the lows of the intraday gap down, S&P 500 futures were down about 23% from all-time highs, officially hitting bear market status.

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Through the overnight session, the price action was choppy, but the direction was clearly up. We didn’t make any lower lows since the open, and since then, we’ve just been melting upward with volatile swings in both directions.

If you were buying overnight through Robinhood or another platform, you probably picked up some great names at deep discounts from just a few weeks ago. Not saying things are exactly cheap here, but a lot of these companies are trading at less than half the valuations they had just a few weeks ago.

What I Bought

Yesterday, I added to my Amazon position and reopened a position in Meta.

The market action felt completely detached from fundamentals. Based on the way things were selling off, you'd think the AI cycle was over and the bubble had burst. But in my view, we’re still in the early innings.

This is just the natural volatility of an early-stage secular trend. If you zoom out, we’ve basically retraced to where we started the year. Still, a lot has changed fundamentally.

• Amazon dropped to around $160 during the drop, compared to its $150 starting point in January

• Meta was around $300 at the beginning of 2024, but fell to $465 last night

These aren’t the same companies they were a year ago. We’ve seen increased free cash flow, expanding margins, and stronger moats.

Meta is more than just a social media or ad tech company now. Their LLM Llama 3 is putting them in serious competition with players like Grok, OpenAI, and Gemini. On top of that, their core business prints cash with strong margins, helping them absorb Reality Labs losses.

I still believe that division will matter eventually, and Zuck’s not doing it for nothing.

If valuations run too hot again, I may trim Meta since it’s still volatile for a mega cap. But that decision depends on what else is in my portfolio at the time. If I don’t have a better alternative, I might just hold onto it. You can follow my real-time moves on SavvyTrader below.

Hidden Edge Capital Main Portfolio

Market Action and Volatility

When the market opened, we saw a big pullback from the overnight levels. Hedge funds and institutions were likely forced to liquidate or cover shorts, maybe not even at their target levels.

The VIX was almost 60 in the morning, triggering wild swings. It reminded me of March 2020 when the VIX hit 70 during the COVID crash.

If you were trading, you probably got chopped around - unless you really knew what you were doing. But as long-term investors, that’s not the focus. We pay attention to fundamentals, earnings calls, and macro data. We react if the thesis changes - not just because of noise.

Lately, nothing fundamental has changed, aside from some short-term concerns around tariffs or a possible economic slowdown. Most of the companies I hold have weathered storms before, and I believe they’ll come out stronger again.

Political Headlines and Tariff Whiplash

We had a 200-point SPX rally after a tweet claimed Trump was considering a 90-day delay on tariffs. That was quickly walked back as a misinterpretation, and the White House came out to deny it too.

Still, markets grinded higher throughout the day.

Scott Bessent said most countries are already in tariff negotiations with the U.S. The big outlier is China. Last week, Trump proposed a 20% increase on top of the existing 34% tariffs on Chinese imports. China responded with talk of a 50% tariff on U.S. goods.

Clearly, the U.S. has more leverage here. Our imports from China are more essential than our exports to them. But that doesn’t mean this is resolved - there’s still a lot of uncertainty.

How I See It

I think the market is overpricing the impact of tariffs. Nothing is finalized yet, and markets always react sharply to uncertainty. But over time, that uncertainty gets priced out.

April 9 is a key date to watch. Several countries have already struck deals, but the EU and China are still in limbo. I think things will get resolved eventually, but not overnight.

For now, we’ll likely continue seeing some uncertainty in the market. And with earnings season approaching, don’t expect many CEOs to give guidance. We might get a couple soft quarters before financials catch up to market optimism.

But just remember - markets bottom before the economy does. When fear is at its peak, that's often when the bottom forms.

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We might have seen that moment yesterday. Futures were down 5% at the open. The S&P was down 23% from highs. As of today’s close, it’s now just 18.5% down.

My Positioning

My cash is mostly deployed. I have emergency deposits ready if needed, but I’m holding off for now.

There could be another leg down, or we might chop sideways for a while. Either way, I’m continuing to dollar-cost average weekly.

If we bounce hard, I’ll keep any new cash as dry powder. Otherwise, I’ll keep tracking economic data, earnings, and macro signals.

It’s very possible we saw the bottom. Hopefully some of you took advantage of the early morning panic.

If you’re a long-term investor or someone who buys index funds weekly to manage risk and avoid the stock-picking grind, this is probably a good time to nibble - not go all in, but start building.

As always, none of this is financial advice. I’m just sharing what I’m doing and how I’m thinking.

Thanks for reading. Let’s see what happens next.

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