Are We Already in a Recession?

While the market has bounced modestly from it's lows, macro fundamentals are still at a low. How do we protect our capital?

So let’s address the elephant in the room:

Are we already in a recession or not?

I think so.

We just received the Q1 2025 GDP print, the first contraction since 2022, at -0.3% QoQ.

This decline was largely due to the frontloading of inventory ahead of the blanket tariffs. But there’s more coming next week: a massive 35% drop in container imports to the Port of Los Angeles.

That’s a big deal.

The Port of LA is the largest in the U.S., receiving the bulk of containers from China. This means inventories are already stockpiled… and any new imports will come in at higher costs, which get passed on to consumers.

Translation?

Prices on $AMZN and elsewhere are about to get more expensive, especially for anything manufactured or shipped from China.

Higher prices = sticky inflation.

And with wage growth slowing well below the Fed Funds Rate, Americans will be squeezed… paying more with less money. More out, less in.

Can the Fed step in? Nope.

Friday’s ADP jobs data surprised to the upside, which I believe is heavily skewed, and unemployment remains low. That leaves the Fed with its hands tied.

There’s only one man who can stop this from spiraling…

Donald J. Trump.

If he doesn’t back off the tariff war with China, we’re looking at a manufactured recession by summer 2025.

So how do we protect our capital in all this chaos?

Well, I’ve weathered the fastest stock market drop in decades. The S&P 500 is down -3.3% YTD, but my portfolio? Up +2.65%.

What’s working? Cybersecurity and fintech.

These sectors are least exposed to tariffs… and I’ve been buying them aggressively during this historic drop. I will add more to this on upcoming articles this week.