THE PROBLEM WITH PREDICTING THE TOP

It’s easy to fear a crash. Harder to ride a bull.

Just 48 hours ago, the vibe was full-on top-call central. Feels like everyone thought, “That’s it. We peaked. No way we keep pushing higher from here.” And yet… here we are again. Market bounced back like it had something to prove. Add in stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls and a labor market that refuses to roll over, and the “impending doom” narrative starts to feel… overplayed.

What’s happening right now is classic. People are trying to out-think the cycle. But this market, this economy… it’s been grinding higher despite every headline screaming otherwise. Unemployment isn’t spiraling up. GDP hasn’t collapsed. Jobless claims might wiggle, but they’re not breaking. If you’re hoping for a crash, it’s like watching paint dry and praying for a thunderstorm.